MIAC Football Championship Scenarios
MIAC Football

Championship Scenarios

Standings through the games of Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026. Five conference games remain, all on Saturday, Nov. 14. There is no playoff. The team with the best conference record is the MIAC champion, and a tie for first makes co-champions. The NCAA playoff automatic qualifier goes to the first-place team under the tiebreakers below.

Clinched at least a share

Still alive

Out of the title race

The title race and the automatic qualifier

Saint John's (8-0) has clinched at least a share of the title and the NCAA automatic qualifier. It wins the title outright with a win at St. Olaf (Nov. 14), or with a loss if Bethel (7-1) does not beat St. Scholastica. Bethel is the only other team that can finish first. Concordia, Carleton, Gustavus, St. Olaf, Macalester, Augsburg, Hamline and St. Scholastica are out of the title race.

Saint John's wins the title outright in 75% of outcomes and shares it with Bethel in 25%. The only way Bethel finishes first is by beating St. Scholastica while Saint John's loses at St. Olaf, which makes them co-champions at 8-1. Saint John's would still receive the automatic qualifier, because it beat Bethel 42-16 on Oct. 3 and head-to-head is the first tiebreaker. Every combination of results counts equally.

Share of outcomes that finish first or tied for first, by final conference wins. A dash means that win total is not reachable.

TeamWins now6 wins7 wins8 wins9 wins
Saint John's8––100%100%
Bethel7–0%50%–

Scenario builder

Automatic qualifier tiebreakers, in order

  1. Head-to-head winner among the tied teamsLooks only at the games between the tied teams. With three or more teams, a team that beat all the others ranks first.
  2. Results against teams not tied, in descending orderCompares each tied team's record against the teams outside the tie, starting with the highest-ranked group and moving down. The first group where the records differ decides it.
  3. Point differential between the tied teamsPoints scored minus points allowed in the games among the tied teams. This page applies it only once all games have results.
  4. Team not in the NCAA playoffs most recentlyThe team that has gone longer without an NCAA playoff appearance. This page cannot evaluate it.
  5. NPI ranking, as listed one hour before the NCAA automatic qualifier deadlineThe better NPI ranking wins. This page cannot evaluate it.
  6. Coin flipUsed only if every step above leaves teams level.

The tiebreakers decide the NCAA automatic qualifier only. Teams tied for first in the standings are co-champions. Policy updated May 2025.

How this page works

The page plays out every winner combination of the undecided games (up to 32,768) and counts how often each team lands on each place. Each combination is weighted equally, so read the percentages as a guide to how many paths lead somewhere, not as forecasts.

Every team plays every other team once, so a tie between two teams is always settled by step 1. For three or more tied teams, step 1 ranks them by record among themselves, and any teams still tied start over. Step 2 is read as results against the teams outside the tie, from the highest in the standings to the lowest, with teams on the same win total taken together.

Step 3 is applied only when all 5 games have results, using the margins entered (7 points by default). Steps 4 and 5 use NCAA playoff history and NPI rankings, which are not on this page. A tie that gets that far shows an asterisk. Until then, a tie that survives step 2 shows a place range such as 1\u20132.

Unofficial. Official standings and tiebreaker decisions come from the MIAC office.